Japan Fall Foliage Forecast 2026: JMC Dates for Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka and Beyond

2026 Japan Fall Foliage Forecast: The Quick Answer

The Japan Meteorological Corporation, or JMC, released its first 2026 japan fall foliage forecast on September 2, covering roughly 700 viewing locations and about 3,000 mountains nationwide. Warm summer heat held nighttime temperatures up longer than usual this year, so most cities are tracking average to a few days late. Sapporo and Nagano are the clear outliers, both running nine to ten days behind their long-run averages. JMC's next update lands in early October, then roughly monthly through late November, so treat the table below as a planning baseline rather than a locked date. For the full seasonal picture beyond dates, the autumn in Japan guide covers weather, food and a complete route.

Lock flights now, but hold exact dates until the October update tightens the range. For month-specific weather, see traveling in Japan in October. Also check traveling in Japan in November for peak-window specifics.

How the Forecast Works: Latitude, Altitude and the 8°C Threshold

Leaves change color once nightly lows drop to about 8°C (46°F) and chlorophyll production slows down. That threshold holds true everywhere in Japan; what shifts from place to place is when each location actually reaches it. Japan Meteorological Agency sample-tree observation standards set JMC's baseline, and JMC layers its own predictive calculations on top to estimate dates for around 700 locations. JMC also publishes 'actual status' updates once a location has genuinely turned, so a late-season check can confirm color on the ground rather than relying on the forecast alone.

Latitude explains why Hokkaido cools first and Kyushu last. Altitude adds a second axis within the same latitude band. Hokkaido's Mount Asahidake, the highest peak in Daisetsuzan National Park, typically peaks above 1,500 meters between September 21 and October 5, weeks ahead of lowland Sapporo. Tokyo works the same way. Central Tokyo will not peak until late November. Mount Takao's 599-meter summit reaches its best color between November 6 and 20, weeks earlier. Lake Chuzenji, at 1,269 meters near Nikko, peaks mid-to-late October, even earlier still. A traveler based in Tokyo in mid-October can skip the six-week wait with the Nikko foliage day trip instead.

Two separate waves move through each city every year. Ginkgo, or icho, trees turn solid gold one to two weeks before Japanese maples, or momiji, turn red. Tokyo's 2026 forecast has yellow ginkgo peaking November 26 and red maple peaking November 29, just three days apart. Kyoto's gap is wider. Yellow peaks November 27 while red waits until December 11, roughly two weeks later. Travelers chasing golden ginkgo avenues should plan to arrive earlier than those chasing deep red maple temples.

Season Comparison: Early, Peak and Late Windows

Autumn color moves through Japan over about two and a half months, from mid-September in northern Hokkaido to mid-December in southern Kyushu. Three broad windows are useful for booking. An early window centers on Hokkaido, Tohoku and the Japanese Alps. A peak window covers Kanto and Kansai together. A late window runs through Kyushu and Shikoku. Each region hits its own 8°C (46°F) nightly-low trigger at a different point on the calendar, which is why the color wave takes so long to cross the country.

Temple entry runs a fixed ¥500 to ¥1,000 in any window. What actually tightens during the peak window is ryokan and hotel availability, not the ticket price.

Region-by-Region Timing and Logistics

Each region carries its own 2026 date and its own access logistics. Kanazawa's Kenrokuen Garden, one of Japan's best-known formal gardens, is forecast for November 30 in 2026, six days behind its November 24 average.

• Hokkaido and Tohoku (mid-September to late October): Sapporo's 2026 red leaves are forecast for November 7, ten days later than its October 28 average.
• Japanese Alps and Chubu (mid-October to mid-November): Nagano's 2026 red leaves are forecast for November 21, nine days behind its November 12 average.
• Kanto and Nikko (late October to early December): Tokyo's 2026 red leaves are forecast for November 29, just one day behind its November 28 average.
• Kansai — Kyoto, Osaka, Nara (late November to mid-December): Kyoto's 2026 forecast is December 11, six days behind its December 5 average.
• Kyushu and the south (late November to mid-December): Fukuoka's 2026 red leaves are forecast for December 7, six days behind its December 1 average.

Deeper Regional Guides for This Route

The Kyoto foliage guide covers Arashiyama and Eikando in more depth. Nara's deer-park color and temple grounds get their own breakdown in the Nara maple guide. Miyajima timing is covered in the Hiroshima autumn color guide. Takayama runs on its own elevation-driven calendar, covered in the Takayama koyo guide. For a ranked shortlist across the whole country, see the best autumn leaves destinations guide.

Building a Late-November Foliage Route

A 10-to-12 day route built around the peak window covers Tokyo, a Nikko or Hakone detour, Kyoto and a Hiroshima or Miyajima finish. Basing in Osaka instead of Kyoto for a few nights typically costs less, and it still puts Kyoto, Nara and Kobe under an hour away by train.

• Days 1-3, Tokyo: Meiji Jingu Gaien's ginkgo avenue, Rikugien Garden, and a Mount Takao hike timed for its November 6-20 peak.
• Day 4, Nikko: a two-hour train from Asakusa to reach Lake Chuzenji before it fades, with an overnight at Chuzenji Onsen to skip Irohazaka weekend traffic.
• Days 5-6, Hakone or Kawaguchiko: the Lake Kawaguchi Maple Corridor, whose 2026 festival runs November 7 to 29 with nightly illumination until 21:00.
• Days 7-9, Kyoto: arrive for the second week of December, since JMC's first 2026 forecast puts Kyoto's peak from December 11. Go to Eikando or Tofuku-ji by 7am, since both turn punishing after 10am.
• Days 10-12, Osaka or Hiroshima and Miyajima: Itsukushima Shrine's torii gate framed by maple color at Momijidani Park closes out the route.

Costs, Transport and Night Illuminations

A nationwide or regional rail pass covers most of this route. Compare current pass prices and coverage before booking, since both change from year to year. Lake Chuzenji's sightseeing boat costs ¥1,850 for a roughly one-hour loop, running hourly during the October peak. Most temple and garden entry runs ¥500 to ¥1,000 per site, in the quiet early window or the crowded peak alike.

Early-autumn travelers should also track typhoon activity before the season's color even starts. See the typhoon season guide for the weather window that precedes koyo. Night temperatures fall fast once color starts, so pack layers per the autumn packing list.

• Rikugien Garden, Tokyo: evening opening during peak maple weeks.
• Kiyomizu-dera, Kyoto: night opening timed to the temple's own peak color.
• Lake Kawaguchi Maple Corridor: illuminated nightly until 21:00 during its November 7-29 festival.

Autumn Festivals to Pair With Leaf-Peeping

Several annual festivals overlap the koyo season and are worth building a day around. Kyoto hosts the Jidai Matsuri parade in the same October-to-November stretch as the city's early color in the northern hills. The Kurama Fire Festival falls in the same window, in the hills north of the city. Confirm current 2026 dates for both before locking a route. Nara's Shoso-in treasure exhibition runs its own short autumn window most years, covered in the Shoso-in exhibition guide. Takayama runs a dedicated autumn festival alongside its mountain-town koyo season. Fukuoka's traditional autumn festivals give Kyushu travelers a reason to linger past the season's last color. Kamakura's coastal temples offer a lower-key, beach-adjacent alternative. See the Kamakura Autumn Leaves Guide: 10 Best Spots & Tips for a Tokyo day trip that skips Nikko's crowds entirely. Check the autumn festivals calendar for the full list beyond these five.

Common Mistakes and Pro Tips for Momijigari

A few planning mistakes come up every year.

• Booking Kyoto too early. JMC's first 2026 forecast puts Kyoto's peak from December 11, so a late-November booking risks green leaves. Put Kyoto at the end of the trip instead.
• Driving Nikko's Irohazaka Winding Road on a weekend. Autumn Saturdays and Sundays back up badly, so go midweek or base at Chuzenji Onsen overnight.
• Arriving at Eikando or Tofuku-ji after 10am. Both go from manageable to crowded within an hour, so a 7am arrival, or a quieter alternative like Jojakko-ji, works better.
• Skipping photography etiquette. Many temples restrict tripods and flash during peak weeks, so check posted signage on arrival instead of assuming last year's rules still apply.
• Locking every night to one city off the first forecast. 2024 and 2025 both ran one to two weeks later than usual, so keep at least one or two nights flexible until the October update confirms the range.

Hokkaido and Tohoku: Where to Find Early Color

For an October trip, move north or gain elevation instead of waiting for Tokyo and Kyoto. Daisetsuzan National Park is Japan’s earliest major foliage area. Mount Asahidake’s upper trails often turn from late September, while lower areas around Asahikawa follow later. The Asahidake Ropeway makes the alpine zone accessible, but weather can close it and mountain temperatures are far colder than in Sapporo.

In Tohoku, Oirase Gorge offers a gentler way to see color in late October. Its forest path follows the Oirase Stream between Nenokuchi and Yakeyama, with waterfalls and maples along the route. Base in Towada or Hachinohe, then use the seasonal bus service rather than driving on busy weekends.

• Daisetsuzan: best for high-elevation color and hiking.
• Oirase Gorge: best for an accessible forest walk and photography.
• Allow a weather buffer: wind, early snow, and rain can shorten northern peak color quickly.